Why bother measuring Twitter Influence? Measure Reach Instead.

There are a ton of websites that attempt (all of them feebly) to measure Twitter Influence, including Klout, Edeleman Digital's Tweetlevel, Twinfluence among the crowd. It is an open and accessible network. So it lends itself to attempts to measure. So I will posit here the limitations, then bring reality into the discussion which is to measure Reach not Influence.

First of all lets discuss Twitter. Its very conducive to sharing links and information. Many people who use Twitter favor it over Facebook, People Use Facebook, but they Live Twitter. And most users tend to be higher of intelligence, more friendly to technology, and I personally believe in the Top 50% of Earners in the US (or future Earners). But there are some drawbacks. Based on the Tweet Volumes there are between 8mil-15mil people on Twitter World Wide at any given moment. Over half of the 100mil Twitter accounts are rarely used.

There are 250mil Consumers in the US age 14 and over. So obviously scale and influence across that group is limited from Twitter with only 40% of users being in the US. Influence only measures whether people share things on Twitter. Not who they are. Which is a HUGE contextual hole in the data. Or why people share something, which is content of the Tweet. There also seems to be an effort to also measure Tweeter's expertise, yet they base it on repetitive key words. If I tweeted about the BP Oil Spill for months every day incessantly that does not make me an expert on BP, the Spill, or the Oil Industry! And lastly if I am a Marketer I should only care about driving Sales for my client. It is almost impossible to know this from Twitter.

Who cares about getting a message out Viraly if no one acts on that message, other than Re-tweeting it?

I have observed all forms of Tweeters. From high volume users with very small networks that share among a few friends, to Follower Sluts who follow thousands of people. Since you will only see and read a very small percentage of Tweets in your feed influence must be looked at realistically. The chance of someone Re-tweeting or taking action will depend on two key factors:

1: Did they see the Tweet (most people will see only between 5-10% of the tweets in their feed if that!)
2: What is the content of the Tweet. (is it worth Retweeting?)

Lastly since outside influence can not be measured realistically and the 'who the person is' is unknown why even try to give a measure. I can be the CEO of a Company with 100,000 employees. I can have 5 people in my network on Twitter and see a Tweet sharing a new Calendar App that is incredible. I like it so much I send an internal Corporate Email telling 100,000 employees to start using this software. Or I can be rich and famous with a million followers, and maybe I get a Tweet that leads me to buy something at a store that I am then photographed wearing on the Oscar Carpet for 90mil people to see, but never Re-tweet or Tweet that I bought the item?

Yes I know what you are thinking. In both cases there could be a viral response such as the employees sharing on Twitter with their network this great App that came from their CEO (most likely without crediting the CEO). And there will be Tweets saying 'Did you see what that Star was wearing?. That is all fine and part of Social Media. But remember we are measuring influence on Twitter. Not in Life. In both cases the true influence originators would of gone unmeasured.

This is why I posit measurement should be focused on reach. You can determine the potential for a Tweet to spread based on the web of connections. But you will never know the quality of those connections, ever. You can estimate based on an average chance of 1] seeing a Tweet and 2] how often they Re-Tweet but that is it. This will allow you to give yourself realistic expectations, because that is what this is about. Expectations. As a Brand or Agency you can then not over promise to the CFO or VP of Sales or CEO like so many Marketers like to do.

Are Brands Scared of Social or is Social over Hyped

The attached link from Clickz.com highlights 5 great Location Based Marketing Campaigns and 5 bad ones.

LINK

The reason I am using this link is it highlights location based campaigns that are very similar to campaigns run on Twitter and Facebook. They are all big brands. What it really shows is that Brands are kind of being forced into the Social Media and Location Based Marketing before there is a true need for it. I have discussed in this blog before reasons major-mega brands do not need Social due to lack of scale and potential downside.

I want to discuss the value here of Social and Location Based Services if done right, then some reasons not to be Social or use Location Based Services.

Done Right:

Where I see the real strategic value of Social Media and Location Based Services is when you use these technologies to steer a prospective customer your way. When they are in the decision making process. But the key is access, respect, and opt-in call to actions.

Creating a Geo-Fence around a store so that when I drive by you contact my phone is not going to change my behavior. You already have Sunday Circulars, TV Commercials, Digital Ads, Email Contact, Print Coupons, and I haven't come in to buy. Why would a Geo-Fence chance my behavior vs annoy me when I drive by to get Gas or Milk.

But what if I could tie in Print, Social, and LBS? When I come to your store I see a poster saying if I take action via and LBS I get a sweet deal on something? Or tie purchases into a real loyalty program that gives a reward for actual repetitive patronage. That is respectful and since I am already there I don't need as big a bribe.

Done Wrong:

Why do I want to participate? Do you need to truly bribe me? Won't that lower the value of your product in my eyes? Will you annoy me? Will it become Push Advertising after I sign up for the SMS Loyalty Program you promoted.

Do you feel such an ego that you think everyone wants to talk with you when out and about or online? Do I want to be a fan of my dog's food or the company I buy most of my soup from? Do these Brands need Social or LBS when they are already reaching me or when Point of Sale in a market might sway me between brands because of what is on sale?

In Wrap Up:

Don't be cocky. Think of what value you will bring to me so that I want to engage and have no remorse once the engagement starts. Be creative. Don't reduce your value in my eyes. But be enough of a value for me to want to engage with you, or patronize you. Be respectful. My time is precious. So is yours. Don't waste either. Think of what makes me want to connect via these media channels vs the already established ones.

The Next Coming Facebook Shit Storm?

I saw this article on AllFacebook.com and it has me concerned. It is already impossible for Businesses to Market on Facebook using Fan Pages. The Live Feed has so many posts only 5-10% of someone's Feed is ever read. Which inhibits viral activity significantly. Now Facebook wants your feed filled with Spam from outside of Facebook if I read this correctly:

LINK

Here is why I think this is going to become a shit storm. The goal of Open Graph was so that Facebook users could 'Like' something off Facebook and that will tell their Network they Like this web page and go check it out. This of course added to the volume in the Live Feed.

Now Facebook is allowing whomever owns that page (NY Times, Apple, whomever) to publish in the users Facebook Stream opening you up to tons of spam. And eventually you will never see anything published by friends and family thus reducing Facebook to nothing valuable for you and your life.

But that isn't my concern since I am surely not a fan of Facebook's ownership. I think they are scumnozzle weasel's and this could be the nail in the coffin!

1] Will they begin this opening of your personal page to the outside world via awareness and notification? If I click 'Like' will a message pop up telling me the implications?

(Here is where I need to include the caveat that I have never clicked 'Like' off Facebook, nor will I ever, so I will have to ask the suckers who do what happens).

So if they fail to notify you this is Shitstorm Level 1, could include having to change this later to save face. Possible congressional inquiry.

2] What if they make this retroactive. Meaning all this time you have been clicking 'Like' they open your Facebook profile to all these websites posting to your page without telling you?

Now that is Shitstorm Level Nuclear War. No one would ever trust Facebook again. Zuckerberg gets his tires slash, house gets egged and spray painted, never given a seat in a restaurant, class action law suits and congress steps in.

Just my opinion but how would you react if tomorrow you can't see posts from your girlfriend or best friend and all you see is 2500 ads for Denny's in your stream, all because 2 months ago you clicked Like on the Denny's website.

Critical Journalism vs Fanboy Journalism

The New York Times is Critical Journalism. People Magazine is Fan Boy Journalism.

Posted this comparison between Tech Crunch and Mashable covering the same Facebook Study subject:

LINK

Then Sir Ad Contrarian (see his blog to your left in my list of great blogs) also covered this same subject having a more critical nature of the study itself:

LINK

Now there is a new issue in the news that Facebook has dismal customer satisfaction ratings.

Ad Week covered this in a very thorough and objective way. They used critical thinking and never kissed Facebook's ass. I know the main reason is if Facebook collapsed tomorrow they will still have a business. Mashable also covered this story and wrote just a short article with one or two critical aspects then proceeded to kiss Facebook's ass and ridicule (in my opinion) the FB user base. And of course if Facebook collapsed tomorrow Mashable could go under since they only deal with Social Media.

Without further ado:

Ad Week Link

Mashable Link

Hands down Mashable proves again and again to be a Fan Boy site that is in awe of BoyBander Social Networks. Yes this blog loves kicking Mashable because they deserve it!